Heres my updated 2010 Roster Preview: (/=more than one choice bold=my choice)
C- Jorge Posada, Francisco Cervelli/Jose Molina
1B- Mark Teixeira, Juan Miranda/Shelley Duncan
2B- Robinson Cano
3B- Alex Rodriguez,
SS- Derek Jeter, Ramiro Pena/Jerry Hairston Jr.
LF- Jason Bay
CF- Brett Gardner
RF- Nick Swisher
DH- Johnny Damon
SP- CC Sabathia
SP- A.J. Burnett
SP- Zach Duke
SP- Andy Pettite/Jarrod Washburn/Jason Marquis
SP- Phil Hughes
Long Relief- Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin
Middle Relief- Dave Robertson, Mark Melancon
Lefty Relief- Phil Coke, Damaso Marte
Set-Up- Joba Chamberlain
Closer- Mariano Rivera
CHANGES:
-Jason Bay instead of Melky Cabrera in the Outfield. Bay would be taken away from the Redsox, who choose Matt Holliday over him, after Bay negotiates with the Yankees and other teams.
-Melky Cabrera and an additional prospect traded to the Pirates for Zach Duke. The Pirates can use a 3rd/4th OF and the Yankees can use pitching. It is well documented that the Pirates and Yankees are very amiable trading partners. The Pirates also have former Yankees prospect Daniel McCutchen waiting in the wing to take over a spot in the rotation.
-Johnny Damon over Hideki Matsui at DH. Damon can play the Outfield and has better speed and is less of an injury scare.
-Andy Pettite re-signed, OR Jarrod Washburn signed, OR Jason Marquis signed. If Pettite chooses not to retire it is a definite that it will be with the Yankees. If he doesn't they will look to either an older player like Washburn or Randy Wolf. I think Wolf goes to the Astros though AND Washburn goes to the Brewers. That leaves me with Jason Marquis. Innings-eater that the Yankees can benefit from.
-Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain switch roles. Simple move to me. Bring any arguments over to the comments.
CONTRACTS:
Jason Bay- 5 Years, $75 Million
Andy Pettite/Jarrod Washburn- 1 Year, $8.5 Million OR Jason Marquis- 4 Years, $40 Million
Thoughts? Comments? Concerns? Bring em over to the comments!
*Photo courtesy of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
UPDATE: 2:10 PM: Once again excuse me for my bad judgement of prospects. Apparently a Pirates fan feels that the Pirates have enough OF prospects to deal with the 3rd outfield situation. If so, maybe a Reegie Corona or Eduardo Nunez will do.
36 comments:
Don't be too quick to give up on a player like Melky Cabrera, it is easy to underestimate his contributions in the clubhouse. This team gets a bolt when he does well, everyone seems to get excited when he performs. Aside from Alex Rodriguez, he is the only player responsible for 3 of the Yankees 14 walk-off wins.
Let's not forget he was not the starting center fielder at the beginning of the season. He did not pout or complain, he performed when given the chance and played his way into the stating CF position for most of the year. You need people like that in your lineup.
Brandon what happened to my post?
I don't WANT the trade....just seems like something the Yankees would do. They want pitching and they don't seem to be WOW'd by the free agent market. If they sign Bay (instead of Lackey) they would need a SP...hence the trade. Melky is a great player and all and I do want him to stay on the Yankees, I really do, but the Yankees view him more as expendable with Austin Jackson coming up soon and he may have reached his max potential.
Delayed your post till tomorrow, check twitter
No Aroldis Chapman? I (and pretty much any Yankee fan I think) would love to see him in pinstripes. Also, Chris Capuano could start as a good long relief man that could transform into a good 4/5 man. Maybe Todd Wellemeyer or Joel Pinero instead of Marquis.
And as for the Duke trade, I would be fine with that. Austin Jackson could be ready for the MLB next season, and Melky is great trade bait that I'd be fine with.
I don't like Aroldis Chapman...i was even considering writing a post about that...he has command issues and is likely to ask for a large contract based on little actual performance. I'd rather spend the money on someone you can count on. Thanks for reading.
My opinion on likely 2010 new Yankees...
-Curtis Granderson
-Mike Cameron
-Mark Derosa
-Doc Halladay
Jason Marquis? Wow, that's terrible. He's a significantly worse rotation option than Joba, Hughes, Pettitte and just about anyone we can dig up.
A 4+ ERA in the NL West or Central is basically 5+ in the AL East.
Personally, I don't see the Yankees getting Roy Halladay. I don't see the Blue Jays liking the Yankees offer OR the Yankees offering enough.
As for Marquis I figured hes a good enough inning eater.
Very Realistic. In fact, it's one of the more realistic predictions I've ever seen. I'm tired of seeing predictions like "Well, I think the Red Sox are just going to pick up Bay and Holliday, trade Lowell, Ortiz, and Drew for Roy Halladay, then trade for Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, and Felix Hernandez.
I appreciate you keeping it within the realm of possibility
Bay over Holliday would be a huge disaster, If cash were to spend on money it would be on Matt imo. Bay is basically a DH in waiting based on how bad his UZR rating is, wipes out any positive his hitting brings. At least if Holliday signs a 5 year deal he will be 34 at end. I'd imagine Boras getting a 6th year.
Can you imagine
(R)Jeter
(L)Cano
(S)Teixeira
(R)Rodriguez
(R)Holliday
(L)Matsui
(S)Posada
(S)Swisher
(S)Cabrera/(L)Gardner/(R)Jackson
Outfield is
LF-Holliday
CF-Melky/Gardner
RF-Swisher
*Austin Jackson(has a chance to impress in ST & at stats at the midpoint of the season.)
I think Cash doesn't want to rush him & that's smart.
As for pitching
1)Skip Lackey, too much money tied up, plus next years players are looking amazing.
2)Sign Harden/Sheets to a 7 mil base contract with incentives to make it ace money.
*Don't depend on them staying healthy for the entire year. (Yankees are prepared for injures with CMW, Gaudin & even Aceves if really needed.
Sabathia
Burnett
Pettitte
Harden/Sheets
Hughes/Chamberlain
*The reason I put them(Harden/Sheets) in the #4 spot is because the #4 spot is not someone you absolutely depend on. That's what happens when your injury prone.
Both pitching & lineups looks borderline godly.
I'd say if the team is assembled as above, that has a chance to become the next Yankees dynasty.
Wow...
Not to be mistaken for a troll or something like that, but I cannot see a lot of this happening.
Jason Bay/Matt Holliday - Stay away from both. If you are going to entertain signing one of them, the smart thing for the yanks to do is go after Holliday. He is the far superior player. I just don't see him being worth the money it will take to sign him. Pass on Bay, pass on him hard.
Trade Melky for Zach Duke - Really? Melky just put up respectable numbers for the Yanks, and they won it all. Austin Jackson will need another few months in AAA, if not the whole year, and the combo of Malky and Gardner did a good job this year. Zach Duke? Really? The guy isn't that good in the NL CENTRAL. I don't want to see him anywhere near the AL East.
Jarrod Washburn - No. Wasn't a good idea last year at the trade deadline, still isn't a good one now. Flyball pitcher in Yankee Stadium = breakdowns. Think Jeff Weaver, only more expensive.
Jason Marquis - Not only is the idea of the Yanks signing him bad, but the contract you suggested (4yrs/40M) looks almost as bad as he would in an August start against the Sox.
Joba Chamberlain - Starter. There is no other way for me to say this really. He. Is. A. Starter. And before you get going on switching things around again, Hughes is a starter too.
Here is what I see happening:
C-Posada, Cervelli
1B-Teixeira, Swisher, Miranda
2B-Cano, Pena
SS-Jeter, Pena
3B-ARod, Pena
LF-Melky
CF-Mike Cameron (1yr/9M)
RF-Swisher
DH-Damon (1yr/8M + team option)/Matsui(1yr/8M) (I would prefer to resign both, but I think Matsui has the edge)
SP-CC
SP-AJ
SP-Pettitte (1yr/10M)
SP-Joba
SP-Hughes
Long relief-Gaudin
Middle Relief-Coke, Melancon, Aceves
Setup-Robertson, Marte
Closer-Mo
And if guys go down, you have Kennedy, Nova, etc. in the minors to spot start.
There is no way Yankees trade Melky without shoring up an everyday centerfielder. Brett Gardner isn't an everyday player. Plus I think the Yankees could get Zack Duke with prospects, instead.
That rotation is terrible if Pettitte doesn't come back. Zach Duke is not a viable #3 starter in the AL East. The guy is a back of the rotation starter at best in the AL. He's basically a younger version of Jon Garland (i.e. not a lot of walks, but gives up a lot hits).
Jason Marquis is a similar story. He's exactly the type of pitcher we wouldn't signed a couple years ago and regretted it shortly after.
Both Duke and Marquis really need to stay in the NL. I might give Duke a shot, but bringing in both of those guys would be terrible. In all honesty Aceves or Gaudin might be better options than at least one of those two.
Joba would be a better starter than both of them and probably Hughes. He has the pitches and the stuff to be a good starter (great if he regains the stuff he showed in 07-08).
I still like Hughes as a starter as well, but of the two of them I think he is more likley to end up in the bullpen than Joba. He still lacks a go-to 3rd pitch.
Not terribly excited about Bay. Think we should not give up on Melky - he got some very bit hits for us.
what about wang? just because he had a bad year doesnt mean we should overlook him. He won all of those games for us and everyone around the yankees organization said that he was displaying good stuff. All that has to happen is that someone help him get his control back. Though the trade for duke might be in the works, i would not like it because he is too inconsistent. then again the same was said about greinke. other than that i agree with your prediction and good job keeping it real and not predicting us having albert pujols or something.
Pena intead of Hairston sounds pretty meh.
Bay should DH instead of Damon.
Joba absolutely should start/Please please please don't sign Jarrod Washburn or Jason Marquis. Zach Duke i'd take, depending on who that prospect you're giving up is.
Jason Marquis 4 years- 40 million? Are you crazy?
Marquis is worth about 2 years at 8.5 max!
OK-going to try and answer as many questions as possible
1. Why Bay over Holliday?--Bay over Holliday because Bay has proven he can hit the ball well enough in the AL East, while Holliday was a pretty good player in the AL East, he still did not live up to expectations. Plus, he said he would rather play NOT in New York (then again this is Scott Boras)
2. Why Marquis? GOing based on the innings pitched stats and the fact that this is something the Yankees would do. This is mostly based on what I think can happen, not what I want to happen. Marquis will likely be able to get a 4 year $40 million on the open market, sadly enough.
3. Why give up on Melky? Not giving up on him. I like Melky (Gardner more but I still like Melky alot) but realistically the Yankees don't seem to be too high on him. They've tried trading him various times and if it can help them get pitching I'm almost certain they would do it.
Mystery Prospect: You decide! Haha I was thinking along the lines of a Reegie Corona, Eduardo Nunez, Ian Kennedy, or Ivan Nova.
Oh and thanks for reading of course! Whether the comments are negative or positive I still appreciate it....I'm writing for you guys. I only started this blog to complain about the signing of A.J. Burnett last year (my bad)
Oh and the question came up why do I use batting average/hr/rbi--a personal preference, sorry.
Well you are probably wrong about Joba being in the bullpen. Every indication from the NYY front office has him starting. Same goes for Hughes pending off-season acquisitions of starters.
God, I hope we don't go after Bay. His defense is bad, and I really believe his offense was more the result of the Green Monster than his talent. I would rather see us get a defensive player like Cameron for a year or 2until Jackson is ready. AS far as pitchers, do we need to take a chance on a guy like Sheets or HArden? I know their upside is considerable, but how many times have we been burned by injury prone pitchers? (See Carl Pavano). I think a guy like Wolf, lefthanded and durable makes much more sense, and either of the kids (Chamberlain or Hughes) as the 5th starter. Frankly, I hope they give Wang another chance, cause when healthy, he is comparable to any of the free agents other than Lackey, and no more injury prone than they are.
Thanks for reading. Just thinking now--if Wang is healthy--should we trust him to get good again? Interesting question to me.
Hey Brandon, Not sure if we can "trust Wang" to get good again, but his track record was excellent before he got hurt. I really believe his foot was never right last year - I remember early on how stiff he was when he landed on it. Real good chance his other injuries were a result of his mechanics being screwed up due to this foot. It just seems to me that before we consider other players with injury concerns, Wang may be a better risk. He probably will also be cheaper, coming of a miserable year like last year. I would think an incentive laden contract would interest him and protect the team if he is finished.
Thanks for reading and commenting back--sorry my response took so long. I agree that the Yankees should bring back Wang but theres 2 problems
1. Will they?
2. Will someone else come up with more guaranteed money?
I think 1. is that they will certainly consider it, but in the long run they won't
2. Yes, I even think the Redsox are a possibility in this case (uhoh)
Thanks for commenting and keep it up!
Hey Brandon,
Is Wang a free agant? I thought that if the Yanks tender him, then we keep him and it goes to arbitration unless they agree on a contract. I thought the only way he leaves is if the Yanks don't tender him. Am I wrong on this?
By the way, just found your blog today. I love it and look forward to becoming a regular.
PS - If the Red Sox want Wang, can we make them take Mitre too? Why is he coming back?
Thanks so much for the kind words, means alot.
To clear up the Wang info they can either tender him a contract or non-tender (release basically) him.
I expect them to non-tender him rather then tender his $5 million deal.
Then they can compete with everyone else.
Oh goodness do I hate Sergio Mitre.
Jason Bay is the worst possible free agent choice. Maybe we'll get Washburn but hopefully Harden instead (not Lacky too much $$). I think we should go after a quality yet not super expensive (so not holliday, dye, bay) young (so not Mike Cameron) guy with some power but still hits for an average (so not Granderson). I think our guy is Marlon Byrd.
My lineup for next year:
Jeter
Cano
Texeria
A-rod
Matsui/Damon
Byrd
Posada
Swisher
Cabrera.
Thanks for reading Daniel and I hope you bookmark us! haha i actually like your idea of Byrd, but i'd put him behind swisher in that lineup. If Damon is resigned he is almost certain to hit 2nd again.
Thanks for clarifying the Wang situation. I guess 5 million would be too much for Wang based upon last year's stats, but I am not sold on either Sheets or Harden. Harden had the most starts (26) this year he's had since 2004, but also only averaged 5.4 innings per start. Plus, he twice since 04 has not made 10 starts in a season. I know his K rate is high, but he is really a health risk, and made $7 million last year, probably more next year. Sheets is also always hurt, he made 31 starts in 08, but had not done so since 04 either. I think the upside for either of these guys is far outweighed by the injury risk. If Wang isn't the Yanks answer, I;d rather see them get a guy like Wolf, who made 33 starts in 08 and 34 in 09. He might not be the sexy choice, but he is an innings eater, and I like lefties in new Yankee Sadium.
As far as Mitre - do you think he has compromising pictures of Girardi or Cashman? Why else would they be bringing him back, certainly not based on the 6.79 ERA. 1.63 whip or 10 HR's he coughed up in 51.2 innings.
I would like Wolf, or maybe a type of player like Justin Dushcherer....Mitre they are bringing back as insurance and ONLY insurance (aka yes he probably does)
I would try saving money for a change. The Yankees are pretty set for next year other than a few additions. Trade Melky and a prospect for Curtis Granderson. Resign Damon for 2 years. Bring in Duncan or Miranda for the field or DH. Pitching C.C., Burnett,Andy,Hughes,Gaudin until Wang is healthy. The Yanks can get help at the July deadline.
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